Earthquakes can happen without warning, and while we know which areas are at higher risk, scientists still can’t predict exactly when these events will occur.
In the United States, areas at higher risk for earthquakes include Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and the entire Mississippi River Valley.
Earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter—who has been working on a scenario that models a hypothetical, but scientifically realistic, major earthquake striking the Bay Area’s on the Hayward Fault, as well as its cascading impacts—told USA Today that such events are “worth planning for” because one “could happen tomorrow.”
“We don’t know when,” Porter said. But “it will happen.”
While such a disaster remains theoretical for now, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that there is just over a 50 percent chance that an earthquake as big as the one described in the HayWired Scenario will occur in the region within three decades.
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey, is a project that examines the likely effects of a large, hypothetical but scientifically realistic magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The scenario was developed to inform policymakers and residents in the region about earthquake-risk reduction.
Anne Wein, a USGS researcher who co-leads the HayWired Scenario, told USA Today that we are “overdue for preparedness.”
An earthquake of similar magnitude to the one described in the scenario historically occurs in the region every 100-220 years, indicating that such an event is perhaps overdue. The last major quake at the fault occurred more than 150 years ago in 1868.
A major earthquake in the Bay Area would likely result in widespread power outages, interruptions to running water services, while sparking numerous fires, so it is important to prepare beforehand for such an event. Cellphone services may also be affected.
How To Prepare for an Earthquake
While earthquakes are unpredictable, there are several things you can do in order to prepare for such an event that will help to mitigate some of the risks, according to the U.S. government’s “Ready” site.
First, it is important to check your home for hazards that could potentially lead to injury or even death in the event of an earthquake. Secure heavy items in your home, such as bookcases, water heaters, televisions and objects that hang on walls. Store heavy and breakable objects on low shelves.
If possible, consider making improvements to your building in order to fix structural issues that could cause a building to collapse during an earthquake.
It is also important to put together an emergency plan. Experts recommend creating a family emergency communications plan that involves a contact who lives out of state. Plan where to meet if you get separated.
Making a supply kit will also be beneficial. This kit should include enough food and water for several days, a flashlight, a fire extinguisher and a whistle.
“Being prepared allows you to avoid unnecessary excursions and to address minor medical issues at home, alleviating the burden on urgent care centers and hospitals,” the advice on the Ready site says.
“Remember that not everyone can afford to respond by stocking up on necessities. For those who can afford it, make essential purchases and slowly build up supplies.”
Consider obtaining a hand-crank charger so that you can power your cell even without electricity. While cell services are likely to be affected immediately after an earthquake, they will likely be restored gradually.
Keeping some cash handy is also a good idea so that you can buy things even if your cards are not working, Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones told USA Today.
Downloading an early warning app, such as ShakeAlert, could help buy you precious seconds in the event of a disaster. The app is an earthquake early warning system that detects significant earthquakes so quickly that it can alert many users before the shaking begins to affect them. This could give you time to protect yourself.
Experts also recommend getting to know and looking out for your neighbors, possibly even creating a community emergency preparedness plan or a mutual aid network.
If everyone only looks out for themselves in the next disaster, “we are going to have social breakdown,” Jones said.
Ultimately though, much of the responsibility when it comes to preparing for earthquakes lies with local and federal authorities.
“For cities and agencies, this means working with engineers to retrofit older structures and design new buildings, bridges, and highways to withstand an earthquake as best as possible,” the Ready site says.
What To Do When an Earthquake Strikes
If you are indoors when an earthquake strikes, you should perform the “drop, cover and hold” maneuver. Practice this technique before such an event occurs so you are familiar with it.
“Drop to the ground, find cover under a table or other sturdy piece of furniture, and hold on until the shaking stops,” the California Academy of Sciences says. “If there isn’t a table nearby, move to a corner or inside part of the building, away from glass, and stay on the floor with your arms covering your head.”
“Stay inside until the shaking has stopped and you are sure exiting is safe. Once outside, move away from buildings to an open space.”
If you find yourself in a car when an earthquake strikes, pull over, stop and set your parking brake. If you are outdoors, stay there and move away from buildings if you can. If you are sleeping in bed, turn face down and cover your head and neck with a pillow.
